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Abadi, A (2014) A study of innovation perception within the construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Mechanical, Aerospace & Civil Engineering, University of Manchester.

Abadi, M (2005) Issues and challenges in communication within design teams in the construction industry: Investigation the use of virtual teams and information and communication technologies in the UK construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, University of Manchester.

Abdulmajid, S A D (1967) Resource forecasting models for private housing projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.

Adams, C D (1995) Procurement of microtunnelling projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.

Adul-Hamid, R (1996) Construction duration prediction using neural network methodology, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.

Al Ghazal, H (2018) Post occupancy evaluation involving end users in Saudi Arabian office buildings through the use of a shortened quality function deployment method, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Al Sanad, S A (2014) The promotion of sustainable construction practices in Kuwait, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, University of Manchester.

Al-Shahrani, M S (2009) Developing a framework of knowledge management system for project management in the construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Al-Zahrani, J (2013) The impact of contractors' attributes on construction project success, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Mechanical, Aerospace & Civil Engineering, University of Manchester.

Alam, M (2009) Investigating the effectiveness of continuing professional development in project management, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Alazemi, T (2011) On the integration of value engineering in the procurement of public housing in the state of Kuwait, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Mechanical, Aerospace & Civil Engineering, University of Manchester.

Alshehri, A (2012) Conflict in architectural projects: diagnosis and avoidance, a study based on Saudi Arabian construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Mechanical, Aerospace & Civil Engineering, University of Manchester.

Altoryman, A (2014) Identification and assessment of risk factors affecting construction projects in the Gulf region: Kuwait and Bahrain, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Mechanical, Aerospace & Civil Engineering, University of Manchester.

Aminian, E (2014) A study of inter-firm opportunism in the construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Mechanical, Aerospace & Civil Engineering, University of Manchester.

Azim, S W (2011) Understanding and managing project complexity, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Babalola, A (2023) The role of the private sector in the development of Sub-Sahara Africa: why governance matters, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Barmayehvar, B (2013) Being an effective project manager: an exploration within project-oriented organisations, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Barnes, N M L (1971) The design and use of experimental bills of quantities for civil engineering contracts, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Bataw, A (2015) On the integration of building information modelling in undergraduate civil engineering programmes in the UK, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Mechanical, Aerospace & Civil Engineering, University of Manchester.

Benster, N A (1970) A study and assessment of water penetration and rapid deterioration in existing dwellings-developed as a guide to future building design, production and maintenance management, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology.

Biggins, D (2018) An exploratory investigation into how project management methods are chosen and implemented by organisations in the UK, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Bin Abd Karim, S B (2015) The development of an empirical-based framework for project risk management, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Boussabaine, A (1991) An expert system prototype for construction planning and productivity analysis, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Bower, D A (1995) The creation of a proactive link between time and money, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Bufaied, A S (1987) Risks in the construction industry: Their causes and their effects at the product level, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology.

Cameron, I (1999) A goal setting approach to the practice of safety management in the construction industry: three case studies, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Building Engineering, University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology (UMIST).

Chow, D H C (2005) Effects of future climate change and near-extreme weather on office building in the UK, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Cooper, M D (1992) An examination of assigned and participative goal-setting in relation to the improvement of safety in the construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Coram, W R (1997) The privatisaton of the property services agency, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.

Crespin-Mazet, F (2007) Co-Development as an alternative to competitive bidding in project business, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Manchester Business School, University of Manchester.

Cuellar Franca, R M (2013) Sustainability assessment framework for the residential construction sector in the UK, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Chemical Engineering & Analytical Science, University of Manchester.

Dalton, M (2008) A risk breakdown structure for public sector construction projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Manchester Business School, University of Manchester.

Diab, A A (2009) Risk management of building services modularisation: Knowledge management perspective, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Drews, F (2018) Designing meta-organisations: an empirical study of boundary setting in large infrastructure projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Manchester Business School, University of Manchester.

Economou, G S (1973) Sales forecasting in a sector of the construction industry: A statistical and econometric approach, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

• Type: Thesis
• Keywords: accuracy; components; forecasting; interest rate; mortgage; performance; market; time series
• ISBN/ISSN:
• URL: https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.345342
• Abstract:
  The purpose of this thesis was to apply four time series techniques on five industrial product groups series and to construct an econometric model for each series in an attempt to forecast the level of activity of the industry under consideration. It was expected that this research would make the following contributions: (i) Provide the best model of extrapolating sales data as a means of forecasting, (ii) Indicate the market variables having considerable effects upon the five product groups series. (iii) Reveal causal relationships between market variables and the five product groups. (iv) Make forecasts of the series. (v) Compare time series and econometric models. (vi) Identify areas for further developments. The four time series models developed were a 'complete' exponential model utilizing seasonal factors and trend effect (Winters), Brown's triple exponential smoothing and two Box-Jenkins models with and without seasonals. As a criterion of measuring forecasting accuracy the root mean squared forecast error was chosen. The 'complete' exponential model performed 'best' in four out of five cases. However, the comparison of the models was considered as an 'indirect' one due to the small number of observations available. The econometric model building approach was based initially upon regression models explaining the relationships of the industry's product groups sales with variables of the construction industry. The most powerful explanatory variables were shown to be dwelling starts and dwelling completions and their two components, private and public dwellings. From the explanatory variables chosen at this stage the 'public dwelling starts' was considered as an exogenous variable, while the private dwelling starts and completions and public completions were treated as dependent variables explained either by economic (market) variables such as, mortgage advances, mortgage interest rate, prices of houses, etc., or by lagged values of corresponding dwelling starts. The simultaneous interactions in the system were taken into account through the construction of four small econometric models estimated by the two-stage least square method. Comparisons of the time-series and econometric models performances indicated preference for the econometric and the Winters models.

Eizak Shiri, F (2015) Planning intentionality and its implications for project planned time, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Mechanical, Aerospace & Civil Engineering, University of Manchester.

El Tayeh, A (2008) Social web-based systems for supporting geographically dispersed project teams in the architecture-engineering-construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Manchester Business School, University of Manchester.

Eldosoky, A I (1987) Dealing with uncertainty in construction projects with particular reference to Egypt, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.

Eleyan, D (2006) Project review solution-directed model using system dynamics modelling, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Emmitt, S (1997) The diffusion of innovations in the building industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Eyiah, A K (2004) Financing small and medium scale construction firms in Ghana: A framework for improvement, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Farrell, P (1999) Construction site managers: an investigation into the career development and role of site managers on medium-sized construction projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Building, University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology (UMIST).

Farrokhshad, M (2021) How practitioners make sense of risk and uncertainty: A Goffmanian study of two case studies of construction companies in the United Kingdom, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Fenn, F P (1999) An aetiology of construction disputes, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.

Fischer, J (2010) Translating zero carbon into building design regulation, theories and practices, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Flores Salas, A (2016) Evaluation of the use of lightweight concrete panels for post disaster house reconstruction using Building Information Modelling, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Fu, X (2010) Refinancing and restructuring projects utilising project finance in developing countries, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Fu, Y (2019) Organizational governance and value creation: An empirical study in megaproject contexts, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Ghaffari, M (2017) The impact of multitasking on critical chain portfolios, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Gilbert, A (2015) Sustainable development and greenspace in housebuilding: rules, roles and responsibilities, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Environment, Education and Development, University of Manchester.

Glass, A (2011) Analysis of building-integrated renewable energy systems in modern UK homes, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Gochoco, J J (1968) The capital structure and financing of the construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Gupta, J P (1966) Building site activity: An input/output model, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Haji Abdullah, M A B (2015) An investigation of the development of mediation in the UK construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Mechanical, Aerospace & Civil Engineering, University of Manchester.

Hindmarch, H (2012) Design change management: Developing a software application to support the evaluation of construction design changes, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Holden, S (2022) Land, materials, and construction site: decommodification through alternative construction, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Holden, S L (2021) Land, materials, and construction site: Decommodification through alternative construction, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.

Hugill, D J (2001) An examination of project management team meetings in railway construction, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Inyang, E D (1983) Some aspects of risk analysis for decision making in engineering projects management, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester (United Kingdom).

James, P D (2012) The specification of construction strategies for low and zero carbon homes: decision-making tools and the evaluation of whole life energy, carbon, cost and performance, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Kosaner, Y (1979) A study of industrialised building systems with special reference to Turkey, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Levy, R (1975) The concept of system identification and its application to the built environment, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Li, C (2023) Efficient and accurate assessment of fire spread over external claddings in high-rise buildings, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Lindebaum, D (2008) Trait emotional intelligence, transformational leadership and performance in the UK construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Liu, Z (2012) Know-how signalling and transfer systems to support integrated supply chains, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Mechanical, Aerospace & Civil Engineering, University of Manchester.

Lundrigan, C (2016) Megaprojects: a design and strategy perspective, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Manchester Business School, University of Manchester.

Luo, J (1998) The transitional construction industry and sino-foreign construction joint ventures in the p.R. Of China, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester (United Kingdom).

Luo, J and Gale, A (1998) The transitional construction industry and sino-foreign construction joint ventures in the p. R. Of China, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.

Lyu, K Y (1989) Internationalisation of Korean industry: A study of the performance of the plant and construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Maiwada, Y B (2003) Private financing of infrastructure projects in Sub-Sahara Africa: a case study of Nigerian water infrastructure project, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, University of Manchester.

Mangitung, D M (2005) Modelling the influence of periodic prequalification criteria on project performance, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Masterman, J W E (1994) A study of the bases upon which clients of the construction industry choose their building procurement systems, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Mat Zin, R (2006) A case study of management control. A construction project: Issues of transaction costs and trust, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Mayo, F B (1957) The management of government civil engineering works with special reference to the controls involved, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Mellado, F (2022) Organisational readiness for BIM, lean and sustainability adoption: a conceptual self-assessment framework for construction SMEs in Chile, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Meng, K (2021) Performance measurement for UK construction projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Merna, T (2004) Assessing methods to analyse portfolios of projects and their risks procured by project finance, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.

Metawa, K O (1987) The transfer of construction management technology to developing countries - Libya as a case study, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Moghaddaszadeh Kermani, M (2016) Criticality-based strategic decision-making model for maintenance and asset management, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, University of Manchester.

Mohamed Sultan, A A B (2019) Decision tools for recycling with a focus on fibre reinforced composites, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.

Moore, A W (2019) Middle matters: Intermediaries and the practice of home energy retrofit, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Morris, P W G (1972) A study of selected building projects in the context of theories of organisation, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Building, University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology.

Mulholland, C (2020) Social value management in megaprojects: A study of UK nuclear decommissioning and remediation, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Naimi, M (2012) Contract and claim prevention in major projects: a study on petrochemical projects in Iran, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Mechanical, Aerospace & Civil Engineering, University of Manchester.

Nazem, S M (1969) A study into the technical and managerial manpower in the construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Ng, S-t T (1996) Case-based reasoning decision support for contractor prequalification, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester (United Kingdom).

Nosair, I A R (1987) The relevance of computerised modelling techniques to construction management problems and training in Egypt, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester (United Kingdom).

Nour, H A (2003) An information approach for enhancing the health and safety file, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.

Nourah, B T (2013) Development of strategic mark-up decision by contractors in Saudi Arabia, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Mechanical, Aerospace & Civil Engineering, University of Manchester.

Nwazota, A (2023) Special purpose vehicle for infrastructure project financing through public private partnerships: the answer to infrastructure problems in developing countries?, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Omotayo, M (2020) Developing public-private partnership (PPP) in Nigerian railway corporation: The governance challenge, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Oztas, A (1995) The mitigation of the effects of delays in construction projects: A knowledge based system approach, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Pali, P (2020) Potential for climate change mitigation through low carbon investment in Indian roads and railways: an assessment of obstacles and opportunities for the Asian Development Bank, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Law, University of Manchester.

Parvar, J (2003) Neural networks decision support system (decision to bid), Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester (United Kingdom).

Paterson, A E (1983) The administration of uncertainty in civil engineering projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Peacock, W S (1990) Site investigation procedures and risk analysis, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.

Perry, J G (1985) The development of contract strategies for construction projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Porter, C E (1981) Risk allocation in construction contracts, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Rahman, H A (1993) The management and cost of quality for civil engineering projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Robinson, W G (2019) Servitization as an ongoing process of changing: the case of ConstructCo, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Mechanical, Aerospace & Civil Engineering, University of Manchester.

Samo, S R (1999) Energy conservation in UK housing and the effect of building regulations, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester (United Kingdom).

Sansone, R (2020) Latent matters: Megaprojects and political imaginaries in post-revolution Tunis, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.

Shabbir, A (2014) Corruption in infrastructure procurement - a study based on procurement of infrastructure projects in Pakistan, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Mechanical, Aerospace & Civil Engineering, University of Manchester.

Shaddad, M Y I (1983) The influence of management on construction system productivity at the project level : A conceptual system causal research model, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology.

Shakeri, E (2002) An investigation of privately promoted infrastructure (ppi) strategy in developing countries: Public-private partnership (ppp) approach, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.

Sigonda, G G G (2000) The impact of infrastructural projects on the environment in Tanzania: The case of mindu dam, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.

Smith, N J (1986) The study of criticality: An investigation based on network theory into the relationship between time and cost in civil engineering bridgeworks contracts and the measurement of the effects of change, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology (UMIST).

Soutos, M K (2006) Forecasting elemental building cost percentages using regression analysis and neural network techniques, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, University of Manchester.

Stephens, P (1974) Builders' and plumbers' merchanting: an attribute study of organization, functions and performance, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Stewart, I C (2011) Profession and innovation in the experience of historical and contemporary commercial managers, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Suraji, A (2001) Development and validation of a theory of construction accident causation, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.

Taroun, A (2012) Decision support system (DSS) for construction project risk analysis and evaluation via evidential reasoning (ER), Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Tipple, C (1993) An analysis of the development of the construction industry since the 18th century, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.

Valikoniene, L (2015) Resource buffers in critical chain project management, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Verma, M (2012) Public private partnerships in road transport infrastructure in India: A governance perspective, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Wang, P (2019) The aetiology and progression of construction disputes between client and contractor in the UK, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, University of Manchester.

Wearne, S H (1969) Organization of large engineering design departments, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.

Wen, Q (2021) Strategic international human resource management in MNEs from an emerging market: case evidence from a Chinese multinational construction enterprise, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

White, A (2020) Operational performance and delivery structure of hospital facilities: empirical relationship analyses in Ontario, Canada, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Willmer, G (1988) Development of risk models for engineering construction projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Yalciner, S (2018) Sustainable architecture and the influence of global assessment tools, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Environment, Education and Development, University of Manchester.

Yapicioglu, B (2015) Management for resilience: the case of the North Cyprus construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, University of Manchester.

Yeo, K T (1982) A systems approach to cost management of large scale offshore oil projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , The University of Manchester.

Young, B A (1988) Career development in construction management, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Zhang, L (2019) To insist or to concede? Chinese contractors' behavioural strategies when handling disputed construction claims, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.

Ziadat, W (2018) A meta-analysis study of project and programme management complexity in the oil and gas sector of the Middle East and North Africa region, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Manchester.